With the help of our AI-powered supercomputer, we provide our Premier League match predictions for every match in each gameweek.
The Premier League season in 2023-24 has been one of the best in recent memory.
We have a title race that is going all the way, with defending champions Manchester City the team to beat and Arsenal pushing them until the end.
Our AI-powered Opta Supercomputer has been making its match picks for every fixture over the course of a hugely exciting season.
Read on as Opta Analyst provides its final Premier League match predictions for 2023-24.
Matchday 38
The Opta supercomputer has delivered its latest selection of match predictions ahead of the final weekend of Premier League football in 2023-24.
Our predictive model has made its picks for the last round of matches as the season concludes with some massively important loose ends still to be tied up at both ends of the league table.
Arsenal and Manchester City are battling it out to finish top of the standings, the final European places are to be confirmed, and while Luton Town are all but certain to go down, they are not yet mathematically certain of that fate.
The system enjoyed a strong round with its picks in the last matchweek, as favourites Everton and West Ham were among the teams to emerge triumphant. It was a near-perfect slate of match predictions in the penultimate week of the campaign, an outcome that will have fans looking at the latest picks even more forensically.
Matchday 38 will see all 10 fixtures take place at the same time on a mammoth Sunday, with all eyes on the Man City vs West Ham and Arsenal vs Everton contests as the destination of the league title is decided.
Liverpool finish their season against Wolves, while Manchester United are at Brighton a week before they play title-chasing City in the FA Cup final.
Ahead of what looks set to be one last entertaining group of Premier League fixtures, let’s check out the Opta supercomputer’s match predictions.
Premier League Predictions Matchweek 38: The Quick Hits
- Arsenal and Manchester City both tipped to win their last matches, an outcome which would give Pep Guardiola’s side a historic fourth straight title.
- The Opta supercomputer strongly backs Liverpool to give Jürgen Klopp a winning send-off as they host Wolves in the manager’s final game, with Chelsea being another confident home win prediction as they host Bournemouth.
- The match between Brighton and Man Utd is rated as too close to call, as is Brentford vs Newcastle, with the final European qualification places set to be decided.
Arsenal enter Matchday 38 knowing their chances of winning the title may be slim, but the Gunners’ permutations are simple enough – they must beat Everton at home and hope for a favour from West Ham when they travel to Man City.
The Opta prediction model fancies Arsenal to do their part – they have a win probability of 61.8%, dwarfing Everton’s 14.3%.
The Toffees played at the Emirates on the final day two years ago, and lost 5-1. Indeed, Arsenal have lost just one of their last 27 Premier League home games against Everton (W22 D4) and have won their final Premier League game of the season more often than any other side (22, including the last 12 in a row), while no side have lost their final game of the Premier League season more often than Everton (14).
The Gunners have won all four of their final Premier League games of the season under Mikel Arteta, the joint-best 100% win rate in games played on the final day by a manager in the competition’s history, along with Chris Coleman.
Newcastle are likely to need a result at Brentford if they are stay in the hunt for a European place. A Chelsea slip-up could still see them finish in the top six, though if they end up finishing seventh a continental berth would be reliant on Man City winning the FA Cup next week. The threat of a draw against Brentford is big, at 28.3%, with the Bees’ chances rated at 36.8% and the Magpies’ at 34.9%.
Newcastle have scored 80 Premier League goals this season, their most ever in a league campaign with a maximum of 38 matches. They have also conceded 60 goals, the first time a team has scored 80+ and conceded 60+ in a top-flight campaign with a maximum of 20 teams since 1914-15.
Brentford, meanwhile, are unbeaten in their last five Premier League home games (W1 D4) and have kept a clean sheet in each of their last three. But only once have they recorded a shutout in four consecutive Premier League home games, doing so between March and May 2022.
Manchester United’s disappointing season could still end with them getting into Europe, though that would depend on either getting ahead of Newcastle in the league table or winning the FA Cup.
The Red Devils have a 35.8% win probability heading to Brighton, whose win likelihood is 35.2% – it’s expected to be a tight affair. United have lost their final league game in two of the last five seasons (W3), as many times as they had in the previous 33 campaigns (W23 D8).
The bad omens continue: Brighton have won each of their last four Premier League games against Man Utd – the last side to beat the Red Devils in five consecutive league games was Norwich City between 1988 and 1990.
Burnley’s meeting with Nottingham Forest seemed like a match that might settle relegation, but now it is something of a dead-rubber, with Burnley down and Forest all but assured of safety. The visitors technically still need a point to guarantee survival, and this game is actually the most likely to be a draw of any match on Sunday, at 29.5%.
Forest came from behind to beat already-relegated Sheffield United in their last Premier League away match. They have not won consecutive top-flight away games since a run of four in March/April 1995, three of which were against sides who were relegated that season.
Burnley have earned just 42% of their Premier League points in home games this season (10/24), the lowest rate of any side. Chris Wood will be out to do the damage against his old side – he is Burnley’s highest ever Premier League goalscorer, netting 49 times for the Clarets between 2017 and 2022.
Chelsea’s late-season resurgence has put Mauricio Pochettino’s team in pole position to secure sixth place, and possibly even higher. They are well fancied to beat Bournemouth at Stamford Bridge, with a win likelihood of 59.5%, with the Cherries at just 16.6%.
Bournemouth’s 13 wins in the Premier League this term is their joint-most in a single season (level with 2018-19), while as it stands their 15 defeats is their fewest across a single top-flight campaign.
But since the turn of the year, only the Premier League’s top three teams have picked up more points than Chelsea (38 – W11 D5 L3). They are looking to win five games in a row for the first time since doing so between January and March 2022 under Thomas Tuchel. Chelsea have won nine of their last 11 Premier League home games (D1 L1), having won just one of their previous 14 at Stamford Bridge beforehand.
Aston Villa (39.1%) have secured UEFA Champions League football, which is a huge boost as they no longer have any pressure on what is likely to be a testing trip to play Crystal Palace (31.9%) on the final day. A close encounter is expected at Selhurst Park, with Villa very narrow favourites, and the draw a threat at 29.0%.
Villa have been hugely impressive in their recent trips to London, going unbeaten in their last 10 Premier League away games in the capital (W7 D3) since a loss at Fulham in October 2022. They have won five of their six such matches this term – and a win or draw in this match will set a new EPL record for most points in away matches against London sides in a single campaign (currently 16, level with Arsenal in 2022-23 and Liverpool in 2020-21).
But this will be the 12th time Palace have finished a top-flight season with a home match and the Eagles are so far unbeaten in their previous 11 (W7 D4). Oliver Glasner’s men have surged up to 12th in the table and still have an outside chance of grabbing a top-half finish.
Liverpool are expected to give Klopp an ideal send-off at Anfield by defeating Wolves. It is fitting that Mohamed Salah, a player so important to the German’s reign, is set to make his 250th Premier League appearance for the Reds in this match. Salah already has the second-highest combined goals and assists tally by any player in their first 250 appearances for a single club in the competition (223 – 155 goals, 68 assists), behind only Thierry Henry for Arsenal (243 – 171 goals, 72 assists).
The Reds have won 13 of their last 14 Premier League meetings with Wolves and the Opta supercomputer gives them a 65.7% of extending that fine record to end Klopp’s tenure with a win.
Luton Town (33.9%) need a miracle to avoid Premier League relegation, but even if they are poised to drop down to the Championship, they have a good chance of doing so without losing on the final day, according to our model. They host Fulham (38.0%) in one of the closer contests on Sunday, and the Cottagers have not won their final league game in any of the last six seasons (D1 L5), since beating Sheffield Wednesday 2-1 in 2016-17.
Our most confident prediction this week is Man City to defeat West Ham, a result that would give Pep Guardiola’s hosts a historic fourth straight Premier League title, and a sixth overall for the Catalan coach. While the result is not a foregone conclusion, a 75.1% win probability is among the biggest we have seen this season and is the highest rating given to any side this week. Arsenal fans can cling to only the slightest hope, as West Ham’s victory chance is just 8.0%, with the draw at 16.9%.
The pre-match statistics look good for Man City, as West Ham have lost 15 of their 17 top-flight away games against the Citizens at the Etihad Stadium and have conceded at least once in all 17 – only Tottenham have played at a specific venue more in the competition without ever keeping a clean sheet (18 matches at Emirates Stadium).
Kevin De Bruyne comes into the final day in magnificent form, and is joint-second in the EPL assist rankings despite missing huge portions of the campaign through injury. He also usually fares well on the final day of the season – he has six Premier League assists on such occasions, which is the most of any current player and behind only Nolberto Solano (7) in the competition’s history. De Bruyne’s assist for top scorer Erling Haaland against Spurs on Tuesday took him to 112 in the Premier League, with only Ryan Giggs having more in the history of the competition (162).
So while David Moyes looks likely to lose his 198th and final Premier League game in charge of West Ham – he can reflect fondly on the statistic that no permanent manager has a higher win rate for the Hammers in the competition than him (37.1%, same as Alan Curbishley)
The highest likelihood of an away win match according to the supercomputer this week goes to Tottenham, who travel to Sheffield United in an attempt to make sure of a fifth-place finish and UEFA Europa League football next season. Spurs triumph in 67.9% of our match simulations, while Sheff Utd are given just an 11.9% chance of causing a final-day upset.
Tottenham typically finish strongly – they have lost their final league game in just one of the last 13 seasons (W10 D2) and, despite having lost five of their last six Premier League matches coming into the game, they are unbeaten in 11 contests against the side starting the day bottom (W8 D3), scoring 35 goals in those fixtures, and are expected to keep that streak going here.
After a poor finish to the campaign, a morale-boosting win is likely to lift Ange Postecoglou’s mood going into 2024-25.
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